What collapse?

In the last 100 years the world population has grown from 2 to 7 billion people, with countries and economy being increasingly interconnected. Complementarity between regions allowed the 3 industrial revolutions and the development of advanced technologies (electronics, space, networks, telecom, and generally the "high-tech") which depend on the close simultaneous interaction of many world regions. This interconnected industry depends on precious conditions: peace, prosperity, technico-scientific cooperation, and tight logistical interconnection between complementary regions. We can already see that the supply disruption of any critical material (rare earths, lithium, other metals, energy, etc), critical industrial component (flash memory, microprocessors, etc), has serious effect on the overall production and development of this advanced technology. Beyond high-tech, the food productivity is dependant on a highly organised, capitalistic and chemical boosted industry.

If a world war would break up it would disrupt further such industry, but if entire world regions would politically collapse and fall into civil war, this industry would simply cease to exist. High-tech products couldn't be produced or repaired any more. This is not to mention the direct causes of these wars and regional collapse: famines, epidemics, drastic reductions of the food production and therefore of up to 80% of the world population.


The key determinant factor I see it climate change. I've studied it, worked on it (UNFCCC, CDM), and taught it in university. This one factor is enough to cause tremendous refugees migrations (around 100M over 10 years), leading to conflicts, civil wars and country collapse. The key regions for such scenario could be flooded Bengladesh fleeing towards India, desertified Sahel countries fleeing towards Europe, desertified Mexico and central America fleeing towards the USA, USA broken down into states and regions with southern USA fleeing towards the north and Canada.


50% probability before 2070?

What after?

Mitigation, How to avoid it?

Mitigate climate change.

Adaptation, How to prepare for it?


Perma-Tech autonomous and robust artefact designed to resist hostile environnent and keep working for several decades without maintenance. For example, chatGPT pods able to provide vocal conversations only requiring regular power recharge. This can allow access to knowledge after the collapse.